COVID
President Biden recently announced during a televised interview that “In the US, the pandemic is over!”. The way people are behaving out there, most seem to agree. But tell that to the ~ 420 families who lose a loved one every day in this country from Covid. Tell that to the thousands who become infected daily, some of whom get pretty sick and miss work. And tell that to those who suffer long-term consequences of their infection like respiratory, heart, kidney, diabetes and cognitive issues. I see them every day in my office. Covid deaths remain the 4th most common cause of death in the US. The pandemic is NOT over.
Although the numbers are the lowest since the start of the pandemic, they have plateaued, even have risen slightly, for over a month. The same has been seen all over the world, other than in some isolated outbreak countries, but in Europe, over the last week, 13 countries have reported steady rises in both hospitalizations and deaths over the last week. In particular, in France, the cases of both have doubled. And what we have consistently seen over the last almost 3 years, is that what happens in Europe soon happens over here.
The predominant strain worldwide is still Omicron BA 5 however I was surprised to hear that every day, new variants are being identified. The WHO announced this week that they are monitoring over 200 different Omicron sub variants. Most of these will peeter out, however all it takes is one which acquires some survival advantage to wreak havoc on society again. This virus keeps looking for a way to survive. Looking for some advantage. But what is an advantage for the virus is surely to be a serious detriment to humans.
Omicron BA 2.75.2 is one of these sub variants which seems to be gaining some ground on BA 5. Several countries including the US have seen a spike however it still only accounts for 1% of all cases tested for genomic sequencing (and the vast majority of lab and hospital tests are not getting genomic analysis). It has been shown to be able to evade immune protection significantly. Another variant of greater concern is BQ 1.1, a direct subvariant of BA 5. Another variant is BF 4.7. More prevalent in Europe, it also is on the rise in the US.
All of these sub variants have developed similar mutations allowing them to evade immune protection from vaccination, natural infection as well as against the monoclonal antibody treatments which have been lifesaving for some patients. What is concerning is that they acquired this same mutation independently, a concept known as “convergent evolution”. This virus is adapting to the measures we are taking to evade it.
Although the virus may be evading immune protection from actual infection, there is still some protection and they continue to provide significantly reduced risk of developing a severe case of COvid-19, the need for hospitalization or death.
As of this week, 80% of Americans have received 1 dose of vaccine but only 63% have gotten the full vaccine. Since the announcement of the availability of the bivalent vaccine (½ original virus mRNA and ½ Omicron 5), fewer than 2% of eligible adults have received it. Only 8% of eligible kids under 5 are vaccinated nationwide with some states like Mississippi and Louisiana are under 2%.
The vaccination rate has stagnated and if you consider that vaccination obtained originally when vaccines first became available with no subsequent boosting, the actual number of people who are truly vaccinated presently is much, much lower. It’s like saying that getting a flu shot 2 years ago will protect me this year. It won’t!
I was shocked to hear that the University of Pennsylvania health system, which mandated vaccination for all employees, and suffered tremendous staffing shortages not to mention millions of additional costs to hire vaccinated nurses from other health systems because of it, has not followed up with mandating booster shots. Basically, they, along with our leaders even at the highest level, have given up and relented to the financial and social pressures, rather than doing the right thing.
Closing our eyes and pretending that all is well and the pandemic is over is very short sighted. We aren’t going to wish and ignore our way out of this.
Please be kind and compassionate to yourselves and everyone else by continuing to be careful. Continue to mask when it makes sense. Avoid places where Covid is likely to be present and spread. If you are ill, Covid or anything else, just stay home. If you are gathering with people or visiting someone who has health issues, test yourself just in case.
MONKEYPOX.
Worldwide, there have been over 65,000 cases of Monkeypox, 24,000 of which are in the US, again a massively disproportionately high number. Fortunately the death rate from this virus is very low (0.04%) and long term side effects are not common. Cases have continued to decline for the last 2 weeks but there is some concern that there are many undiagnosed and untreated cases. Even including this uncertainty, this outbreak is diminishing. But to call it under control would be naive. There are still over 300 new cases per day in the US.
Once again, public talking heads are misspeaking stating that the plan is to “eradicate” this virus. This is impossible and creates a false sense of security. We may be able to eliminate it from the US, but the reservoir in Africa will always be present and worldwide spread, just another airplane ride away.
POLIO.
Wastewater from 4 different counties in NY state continue to show contamination with this virus. The bottom line is that it is spreading asymptomatically and this is dangerous. Although acute cases are rare, the majority of complications, paralysis being the most significant, occur decades later. So all those people who may have contracted it are ticking timebombs. Vaccination against this virus is crucial and the only way to prevent this present and likely future infectious and chronic illness problem
EBOLA.
Uganda has had an outbreak of this deadly infection once again. 36 cases and 23 deaths (that’s a 64% death rate) started in one small area but has now spread to 3 other local areas. Although all Ebola outbreaks are concerning because of the high death rate, this outbreak is particularly disturbing since it involves a particularly bad strain calle Ebola Sudan. This is one of 4 different strains of this virus, the most common one being the Zaire strain which caused the 2014 worldwide outbreak. The main concern about Ebola Sudan is that there is no existing vaccination against this strain. Ring vaccination, the process of vaccinating ever enlarging contact “rings” of infected people, has been crucial in stemming the tide of disease outbreaks. It has been helpful in Ebola Zaire, but this strategy is not available for Ebola Sudan. There are ongoing studies on vaccines which are being developed. Stay tuned.
UKRAINE.
The war Putin has imposed on not only Ukraine, but his own people and the rest of the world (especially given Russia’s obvious sabotaging of the Nord Stream Pipeline in effect to punish Europe) rages on. Although there are many sanctions imposed by many countries, I have read that between the rise in gas prices and the rest of the world’s continued gas purchases from Russia, they are making more money than even before the war. So it will continue to rage on. Brave Ukrainians are dying defending and taking back their homeland while Russian soldiers continue to die for reasons they are not even aware of. It is all so very sad but will continue until Russia is completely cut off economically from the rest of the world. There will be shortages and people will have some struggles without all of their gas, but we will survive and the carnage in Ukraine may end a little sooner and the long path of reconstruction can begin.
Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine)
Slava Heroyam (Glory to the heroes).
CLIMATE CRISIS.
I heard a well respected climate researcher say that calling our present climate calamity “climate change” is like calling an invading army “uninvited visitors”. We soften everything to make it more tolerable for the masses. You have to have your head buried in the sand not to appreciate what is going on around us with respect to our changing climate. The disaster in Florida is just another calamity in a long line of calamities which we just shrug off and claim triumphantly “we will rebuild!” All of the above mentioned issues are certainly worthy of addressing and being concerned about but it is all short term and ultimately irrelevant if in 50 years our descendants don’t have a planet to live on. This is not hysteria. The estimates are that at the rate of soil destruction, we have only 40 more harvests left. At the rate of ocean overfishing, there will be no more fish left in 30 years. The ocean populations are already 90% depleted. All of us living today may be fine, at least the adults, but our future generations face a very concerning situation. You can recycle and cut down on driving your gas guzzler all you want but the destruction of the climate and our planet will not slow down or stop until we start supporting the unsustainable food system which exists today.
The fact is that the global warming gas production from factory farming is much greater than what is produced by all modes of transportation worldwide combined. Some estimates are that as much as 87% of these gasses come from factory farming and CAFOs (concentrated animal feeding operation). And before you jump up and say that you only eat grass fed beef or free range chickens, they are even worse for the environment because of how much land and other resources are required to raise these animals.
The fastest way not only to halt but reverse climate change is to stop or significantly reduce eating animals and animal products. This slows production of methane and allows destroyed lands to re-wild, and forests and wild lands are the most important carbon sink the planet has. It is also the ethical thing to do. Just read a little about the torture the animals you eat endure before they end up on your plate. Most people won’t because they don’t want to know. Blissful ignorance.
Phew!
Enjoy the rainy weekend.
Enjoy your family and friends and appreciate all that you have.
You have more than you realize and certainly more than you need.
Stay Safe and Be Well.
AC