General Wellness

The Delta variant, the one which has been devastating the Indian subcontinent, is here and we need to be concerned. It accounts for over 90% of new cases in Britain. A month ago, it only accounted for 1% of new US cases but is now up to 6%. In addition it is thought that it will be the dominant strain in the US within the next few months.

Not only is it significantly more infectious than previous versions (2-3x more infectious than the British variant which was twice as infectious as the original form), but, as the British variant, it infects kids more readily and it causes more severe disease.

Although it was initially thought that it was not leading to worse disease, trends indicate that this is in fact not the case. This variant IS resulting in more hospitalization, essentially an indicator that it is more aggressive.

In Britain, they are seeing not only more hospitalizations but these cases involving younger people. Why? Partly because they are also the ones who are not getting vaccinated to the same degree as older people.

Vaccination is not as protective against the Delta variant as it is against the other forms, but it is still very good. In the 80% range, but that also assumes you get BOTH doses if you get the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna). The coverage with J&J is a little bit lower but still much better than nothing. With only one dose, you only get about 30% coverage.

We are enjoying more freedom than we have had for a year and a half, but that WILL change, and very quickly if we don’t continue to vaccinate those who are still at risk (everyone) and behave in a way which ignores the fact that this virus is still spreading.

Life is NOT back to normal, and it won’t be for a long time.

We must come to grips with the fact that this virus has changed how we will live our lives moving forward. Being cooped up is not the answer, but neither is avoiding vaccination and behaving in a way oblivious to the existence of this virus and potential for infection.

This pandemic will eventually settle down, but it won’t go away. And it will not be the last pandemic, especially if we continue to live however we want.

Continue to MASK and DISTANCE where and when appropriate.

WASH your hands.

VENTILATE. Spend as much time outdoors as you can. This is an indoor virus.

VACCINATE. It’s still our best line of defence.

GET HEALTHY!. 

Stay safe and be well.

AC

NO, this is not a Covid variant. For all those of my vintage (50’s), you might recognize this as the crazy fraternity in the John Landis 1977 classic movie Animal House. I was listening to a podcast about the concerning situation with the SARS-COV-2 variants, describing the Alpha, Beta and now Delta variants and had to laugh as I thought of this movie.

“Mr. Dorffmann, Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life son…… Mr. Blutarski, GPA zero point zero”.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKS0GVvoE9I

Now, getting back to the variants.

The more this virus is allowed to infect people, allowing it to spread and replicate, the more it will mutate and the greater the risk for developing a REALLY devastating disease, infecting and killing even more people, if you can imagine that. You should try to imagine that, because it can really happen. Think Ebola. And, just as an aside, a recent case of Ebola infection was traced to someone who had recovered from the disease 5 years previously. Live Ebola virus was still found in his semen, infecting other people!!!

Although we are hitting great vaccine numbers in the US, vaccination rates have dropped off dramatically. In Detroit, thousands of doses are expiring and there is a plan in the works to give Canadians some doses in a tunnel connecting Detroit and Windsor. Ingenuity!  We also have lowering new infectious rates here in the US. But the fact remains that only 0.5% of the 6.4 billion people living in poor to middle income countries even have access to vaccines, and in those countries, Covid is exploding.

There are at least 10 significant Covid variants, 4 of which are “of concern” and the other 6 are “of interest”. The original form of the SARS-Cov-2 virus is called the “wild type”. The Alpha variant is the first British variant which is 50-100% more infectious than the wild type and has been shown to infect kids more easily. The Beta variant is the S. African one (B1315). The version devastating India is the Delta variant (B1617.2) and is at least 40% more infectious than the alpha type. Gamma is the Brazil variant, P1.

From a herd-immunity standpoint, had we been only dealing with the original form, the estimates are that we would need 67% of the population vaccinated or infected for the virus to burn itself out. With the Delta variant, given it’s increased transmission rate, we need even more, estimated as high as 83%. This is an impossibility. In other words, this virus will never go away. It will just keep re-circulating necessitating booster vaccinations probably yearly.

What makes it much worse than the flu, is that there is NO seasonality to it. Just look at India. Hot as hell, and the virus is spreading like wildfire. The same in Brazil.

Although the lethality of these variants is not much higher than the wild type (they are a little worse), the sheer numbers of sick people and how they can overwhelm the medical systems of the impacted countries has led to a dizzying increase in deaths. In addition, these variants seem to infect kids a little more.

All the more reason for EVERYONE to get vaccinated!. STOP THE SPREAD!

We keep thinking that here at home, we are over the hump. This is  GLOBAL PANdemic and if there is active virus anywhere, and as they mutate, they can come back and impact on us significantly as well.

Although the present vaccines do cover these variants to some degree, they are not as effective as they are against the wild type. So why get vaccinated? Because if we can stop any infection, we decrease the risks of developing a REALLY bad virus. In addition, less protection is still more protection than if you did not get vaccinated at all.

People need to stop being paranoid about side effects or complications from the vaccines. They are negligible when compared with what can happen if you get sick or if a really bad variant develops.

Remember, if you give 1 million people an apple, 50,000 of them will have an allergic reaction!!! Does that mean you should never eat an apple? How ridiculous is that? The drug which causes the most deaths and reactions worldwide is Aspirin. So should you never take an aspirin? Also ridiculous. The reactions to vaccines are normal and many of them are simply coincidental. Elderly people in nursing homes die. Why? Because they are old! Not because they got a vaccine. The risk of a clot from the birth control pill is 250x greater than the risk from vaccination. I don’t see birth control users rushing to stop the pill. But the risk of a blood clot if you developed a serious case of Covid 19 is 25%! More than 10,000x greater risks. What sane person would question those odds?

The ONLY definitive contraindication to getting the vaccine is a known, medically proven, anaphylactic allergic reaction to one of the components of the vaccine. This is exceptionally uncommon.

Not an egg allergy. Not a previous reaction to a different vaccine, including Guillain Barre Syndrome or Bell’s palsy. Not having general “allergies”. Not Religious beliefs. Not a concern about baby parts having been used in their production, which is a myth. Not a concern about being injected with a tracking device. Not a concern about your DNA being changed. Not a fear of “shedding” something that affects other people. I don’t know what the heck people are talking about with that last one, but then again, some people still believe that the Earth is flat and that Democrats drink baby blood.

Get vaccinated!

It really is the most important and efficacious thing we can do to try to coexist with this virus while minimizing disease and downtime.

In the meantime, continue to behave responsibly when in situations that may lead to infection. You may be vaccinated, but you can still get infected and pass it along to someone not vaccinated or someone more vulnerable. When outdoors, go ahead and take off your mask. The chances of getting infected outdoors is exceptionally small. If you are at a dance recital in an enclosed gym with lots of people? I would think twice. If you are at a restaurant and there is an option to eat outside or near a window, choose that.

I plan to continue to wear my mask anytime I am in any store or public location without proper ventilation. Our office policy is “no mask, no service” and my employees are still required to wear masks in common office areas.

Remember that it is not about you. It is about all of us.

Stay safe and be well.

AC