I know I’ve had a few “doom and gloom” posts recently, but there are some things which need to be pointed out.
It’s been 1 year since the WHO declared Covid-19 a worldwide pandemic. The basic present-day numbers are as follows:
- 2.6 million deaths and 118 million cases worldwide associated with Covid.
- 530,000 deaths and 29 million cases in the US. These represent 20% of the total deaths and 24% of the cases worldwide, despite the US population only representing 4% of the World population. We’re #1!!! By far. Pretty sad.
Although the numbers have plateaued here in the US (remember that our present day numbers are as bad as they were during the first wave last spring when we locked down), there are massive outbreaks in other parts of the world like Brazil, where hospitals are once again overwhelmed. If you look at the worldwide graphs by region (a great resource is Oxford’s “Our World In Data”), the trend over the last few weeks, all over the world, is a slight, but consistent rise in case numbers. US trends have followed global trends almost to a T since this all started, just delayed by 4-6 weeks, so the forecast is not great.
I point this out because last spring, we followed in shock on TV and the web, what was going on in Italy, where their hospitals were so overrun, that patients were being turned away, only to die at home. Within a month or so, we had mobile morgues on the streets of NYC and our patterns of disease and death were almost exactly parallel to theirs.
We are a global community and, despite much less international travel, some is still occurring. We are not an isolated island like New Zealand. We are not good rule-followers. We are selfish. We may have better numbers now, but they will change, especially as we relax our behavior, which is happening at a feverish pace.
Make no mistake that the variant viruses are here in significant numbers. They are much more infectious. They cause much more significant disease and they cause much more death. Our vaccines provide some protection so it remains critical to continue aggressive vaccination but we will likely need boosters eventually. The numbers of vaccinated people is outpacing the number of new daily cases, but that can change quickly.
Get vaccinated!
Have a great, safe weekend. Please be careful and continue to follow all the basic recommendations we know work to protect ourselves and all those around us.
Stay safe and be well.
AC