In the US, we have always had the attitude that we are HERE, and everywhere else is over THERE. What goes on there, does not impact what goes on here. We even do it in our own country. NY was being devastated and those outside of NY state watched as if it was going on across the globe.
But that attitude is selfish and self defeating. Covid should have shown this already, but we keep repeating the same mistakes, expecting a different result.
Isn’t that the definition of insanity?
We watched in fear and shock at what was going on in China and Italy when all this first started. And then it happened here. Our disease and death graphs ended up being identical. Actually, our graphs ended up being much worse with the US still accounting for 20% of Covid cases and deaths, despite only representing 4% of the world’s population.
We see how even in countries where Covid seemed to be under control, like Britain, where the variant now called the Alpha variant, spread like wildfire. It came to our shores but we still didn’t change.
And now it is happening once again with the Delta variant. It continues to decimate the Indian subcontinent, even though the news outlets have moved on to the next hot topic and infections with this variant now accounts for 90% of all new cases in Britain.
The same pattern is emerging here. 6 weeks ago, the Delta variant accounted for only 1% of new cases. 2 weeks ago, the numbers went up to 6% of new cases. Last week, 12% and as of this week and now it has now escalated up to 20%! And not surprisingly, it is exploding in those states with the lowest vaccination rates.
Delta is 2x more infectious as the Alpha variant which was twice as infectious as the original virus. It also causes more aggressive disease and infects younger people and children more than the previous versions.
Although the present vaccines available in the US and Canada do provide some protection against the Delta variant, it is only as much as 80% effective. And all you need to do is look at what is going on in Israel where they have the highest rate of population vaccination in the world and yet they are struggling with a Delta variant resurgence, even in vaccinated people. Most of them got Pfiser.
Just to clarify what it means, when “% effectiveness” is quoted in most reports, we are talking about how well it prevents serious disease or death. There is a different “% effectiveness” when it comes to catching the disease at all. In both situations, you are infectious to others and even more so with mild symptoms because you don’t even know you are spreading it.
Why bother getting vaccinated? Because 80% protection is better than 0%. And protecting yourself against even the previous versions of this virus still helps limit the spread and the likely potential for this virus mutating into an even more serious variant. Like something along the lines of the coronavirus which caused MERS (Middle Easter Respiratory Syndrome), which had a 40% kill rate.
Weighing the risks. People continue to get bent out of shape about side effects of the vaccination when they are clearly minimal and clearly insignificant when compared to the side effects of getting really sick from Covid. Even the most recent hullabaloo about myocarditis seems to be overblown. This is an inflammatory condition of the heart, usually self limiting without any permanent impact, which occurs on occasion with not only any vaccine, but after just having a run of the mill viral infection, and sometimes, for no reason at all. The background rate is about 200 cases per million whereas the incidence of this with the Covid vaccine is 12 per million. The risk of myocarditis after even having Covid is much higher however, increasing with the severity of the disease. One study showed that up to 60% of recovered hospitalized patients have myocarditis. It has also been seen in patients with mild symptoms with one small study at the Ohio State University showed that 15% of collegiate athletes infected with COVID-19 had evidence of myocarditis.
As I like to tell vaccine-hesitant people, if you give 1 million people an apple, 50,000 (5%) of them will have an allergic reaction, some so severe that it could be fatal. Should no one ever eat apples? Clearly that is silly. 1 in 15 people who take aspirin daily suffer a complication and 1 in 556 die as a result. Should everyone stop aspirin? That is silly also. If you have a known apple allergy, don’t eat apples. For everyone else, they are very healthy. If you do not have real risk factors for heart disease, then don’t take aspirin. If you’ve had a heart attack or stroke or another real risk factor, aspirin can be a life saver. Talk to your doctor about the risks and if they say “just take it just in case”, get a new doctor. That advice sucks.
The point is that millions of people have received the vaccine worldwide and they work. However, if we don’t get this under control and more variants are allowed to develop, we are in big trouble.
To reiterate, 1% of Delta variant new cases to 20% in only 6 weeks. And we are behaving like nothing is going on with mask mandates and social distancing guidelines being thrown out the window.
Although our present vaccines seem to be providing longer lasting protection than we first thought, we will need boosters, if for no other reason than to cover the variants. When? Not clear yet. Probably by the fall.
I desperately want my youngest son to be on campus this fall. I am tired of doing tracheostomies on Covid patients who are unable to get off ventilators. I’m concerned that come the fall, we will be in a similar situation we were in last fall.
PLEASE get vaccinated and continue to be careful.
I have a busy week and in case this is my last blog, have a safe July 4th.
Thanks to all who serve, have served and especially those who paid the ultimate price to protect us and our freedoms. You’re all much braver than I am.
Stay safe and be well.
AC