Europe and Singapore are in the midst of a surge. Not as severe as in the past, but there are clear increases in cases and subsequent hospitalizations in deaths.
In Europe, case numbers went up from 1.1 million a day in early September to just under 2 million a day at the end of September. ICU admissions in France and Germany have almost doubled in the last month and elective surgery has been significantly curtailed because of hospital overload from Covid.
In Singapore, which has one of the best vaccination rates in the world, cases rose from 1800 a day in early September to over 8500 in mid-October, an almost 5x increase. Their death rates remain low however but hospitalization is on the rise.
In both locations, variants other than BA5 are on a rapid rise. There is BQ 0.1, BQ 0.1.1 and BF 0.7. The virus variants continue to improve their ability to evade our immune system, be it through vaccination or natural immunity from previous infection. The Chinese vaccine in fact showed an almost 0% protection rate from infection. Vaccination still seems to protect against severe disease though. It is not clear why, but probably has to do with general immune boosting properties of the vaccine in addition to some specific SARS-Cov-2 protection.
In the US, although national numbers have continued to minimally trend downwards, there are 24 states in which hospitalization rates have increased in the last 2 weeks. Of those, 12 have doubled their numbers, 5 of which have more than a 20% rise in hospitalizations. An obviously concerning trend, especially given the RSV outbreak we are in the midst of and a potential to completely overload an already taxed and understaffed healthcare system.
In NYC, the US epicenter of the original Covid explosion in 2020, hospitalizations rate has increased by 10% and about 10% of those cases are from BQ 0.1.1. All three of these variants also seen in Europe and Singapore are on the rise in the US, increasing in prevalence accounting for 25% of new cases in the US. The BA5 subvariant has dropped from 80% of cases to 60%.
What does all this mean? Who knows! One thing we know definitively is that this virus, and the times we are living in, are very unpredictable.
All we can be sure of is what we have experienced already, and even that can and should be questioned and reviewed. How we use this information moving forward is up to us. From my perspective, if you can avoid getting infected or re-infected with anything, especially SARS-Cov-2, it’s worth the extra effort. There are many long term side effects and how our health will change in the coming months and years is to be seen. However we also need to live our lives as “normally” as we can. This does not mean that we live as we did before, pretending that the pandemic is over since it is clearly not. Ultimately, the pandemic, climate change, world wars especially in Ukraine, divisive politics… all of these issues can be solved with one behavior change. COMPASSION. Not just for other humans, but for the planet and the animals.
COMPASSION benefits the giver much more than the receiver.
Please be safe out there and continue to do the things we KNOW protect us.
MASK UP when appropriate.
DISTANCE and stay away if you’re sick.
PRACTICE PRACTICAL HYGIENE.
VENTILATE. This is not only opening a window or running a fan. Get outside!
VACCINATE. It WILL protect you in one way or another.
GET HEALTHY!!! There is no magic pill.
As one of my favorite docs Dean Ornish says: Eat well, Move more, Love more and Stress less.
Be Well and Stay Safe.
AC