The numbers are falling. Deaths, cases and hospitalizations. All seem to be dropping but we need to keep it in perspective.
For the first time since November 2020, less than 100,000 new Covid cases in a week were identified and, under 3000 Covid-related deaths occured in one day! These are numbers we used to think were apocalyptic in the spring of 2020, and now they seem like a positive sign.
Why are the numbers dropping? A combination of better compliance with mask wearing and distancing, slow, but progressive vaccination as well as some degree of protection for those who actually got sick is all contributing. It seems that in the schools where proper PPE and limited, rotating class sizes are implemented, Covid rates are very low. Even the NFL, the professional league which seemed to be the strictest with PPE and Covoid-mitigation plans, seemed to do pretty well. I saw much better mask compliance on the sidelines and in the crowds during the Superbowl than the regular season. It was good to see.
The downward trend is certainly positive, but with a weekly doubling in cases of the British variant in the US, along with the S. African and Brazilian variants are likely already spreading more than we know (US ranks 42nd in terms of genomic testing), these numbers may just be temporary. Some epidemiologists are even predicting a worse scenario than we have yet seen in about 4-6 weeks. Hopefully not.
The recent loosening of social distancing and opening up of restaurants in certain hard hit areas in the country won’t help either. Why take your foot off the break when there finally seems to be some control?
As far as vaccine efficacy is concerned, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines seem to have some protection against both the British and S. African variants as does the new one from J&J although that one is still awaiting FDA approval. Administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been halted in S. Africa since a recent study showed very poor efficacy against their variant strain which accounts for 95% of their cases in recent months. Studies were small, but significant.
We need to continue to be careful and vigilant, if for no other reason than to give scientists more time to catch up with vaccine production and development of newer vaccines to cope with the new strains. This may not be as difficult as de-novo production of a vaccine, but they still need time to tweak the existing vaccine.
I am surprised how often I get comments about how I need to worry less about the virus since I’ve been vaccinated. Sure, I’m less worried for me, but I am just as worried for everyone else. I can still transmit the virus if exposed. If exposed to one of the variants, I can even spread it more so, I am changing nothing about my behavior.
Whether you have been sick or not, whether you have been vaccinated or not, PLEASE continue to be safe and do what we know works, not just to protect ourselves but also to protect everyone else:
MASK
DISTANCE
WASH
DON’T TOUCH YOUR FACE
EYE PROTECTION
VENTILATE
VACCINATE
GET HEALTHY
Stay Safe and Be Well.
AC