ASYMPTOMATIC vs PRE-SYMPTOMATIC SPREAD
Just to show how information and misinformation is changing regarding Covid-19, the WHO (World Health Organization) announced and then retracted 2 statements last week. One had to do with how much disease is being spread by people who have no symptoms. Initially, they felt it was a lot, then maybe, not so much, and then now…we just don’t know.
There is no question that people without symptoms can transmit the virus but we don’t know how many cases that accounts for. We do know that there are many patients who develop Covid with no known contact. This could be asymptomatic spread or simply touching a contaminated surface and then subsequent infection after touching your face or mucus membranes.
To add a little to the confusion are some other terms bantering about out there.
Asymptomatic spread means spread by people who have no symptoms. Many people who get the infection simply never get symptoms. This could be as a result of a healthy immune system, low degree of viral load which does not overwhelm the body or some other combination of factors we are still learning about like Vitamin D levels, blood type (O- are the most protected and A+ the least) or something else.
Pre-symptomatic spread is spread by people who are just about to develop symptoms. This is an important point since people are most infectious in the day or two before they develop symptoms. This is when the viral load is the highest in most people. This is why it’s important to do contact tracing and self-monitoring if you find out you were with someone in the day or two before they developed symptoms.
Remember that although most people develop symptoms with 3-7 days of exposure, the incubation period has been seen as long as 14 days.
Pauci-symptomatic spread. “Pauci” loosely means little or few. Some people may not have the classic symptoms of fever, cough and breathing difficulties. We now are adding loss of smell or taste, headache and GI symptoms to the list of common symptoms. But some people may have very mild symptoms like a simple runny nose, common during allergy season. Or they may just feel a little achy for a few days.
What all this means is that you need to be vigilant. This infection will be with us for a LONG time. Here are some hard facts:
- The virus is mutating and becoming more infectious. This may not be bad since the significant disease or death rates do not seem to be changing but you never know. It is estimated to be 10x more infectious than before. If mutations continue, however, the virus becomes a bit of a moving target, like the yearly Influenza (regular old flu which killed 70,000 Americans in 2017). It could als become more deadly.
- To reach herd immunity, if that’s even possible, we need 70% of the population to have antibodies either through exposure or immunization. The present exposure rate is barely 5-6% in both the US and worldwide. Furthermore, the company getting the most press about their vaccination development and trials says that if all goes well, a viable vaccine is still a number of months away, maybe 6, and when they are ready, they are hoping to be able scale up production to immunize only 6% of the population in the first year. Even if you assume that other companies are able to develop a viable vaccine, we can’t possibly hit that 70% number in less than a year. How long will it take? Anyone’s guess, but not soon. We may be dealing with this for a few years.
- What about a second wave in the fall? We are still in the midst of the first wave. Despite never even showing a slight decline in infection rate, some states are opening up and numbers continue to climb. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.
I was recently asked my opinion about a few things, some involving how long this infection will be around along with some other questions about the environment and I was labeled as a “doomsdayer”. I think that we are capable of getting through this, or at least getting to a point where we can manage it, but ignoring facts and resuming regular behaviors and old habits is not going to get us there. We must learn from all of this and change. If nothing changes, nothing changes.
It’s important to socialize and get out there. It’s important to support our economy. But we must do so in a measured, smart manner.
Practice personal distancing (not “social distancing”).
Wear a mask. It just makes sense.
Don’t touch your face, nose or mouth.
Wash your hands and use sanitizer sensibly.
If you’re concerned about your exposure or someone else’s, just stay away. We must protect the most vulnerable.
Most importantly, GET HEALTHY!
As Dr. Dean Ornish says:
Eat better.
Move more
Love more and
Stress less.
Stay safe and be well.
AC 😎✌️🌱❤🐖🏃🏻🧘🏻♂️🌎😷