WHY HERD IMMUNITY THROUGH NATURAL INFECTION IS A PIPE DREAM.
In simple terms, because it has NEVER happened before, with any pathogen, in the history of humanity.
The closest we have come to eradicating a microbe is with polio, and that is only because of mass, worldwide immunization with a very effective vaccine. And even with polio, there are still occasional stray cases. Even the bubonic plague, which in the 1600’s killed 25 million people, 1/3rd of Europe’s population, still rears it’s nasty head even today. Measles, an infection 10x more contagious than Covid, to which there is 100% protection once you’ve had it or are immunized against it, still occurs regularly. More than 20 million cases a year worldwide, primarily in countries lacking primary prevention like immunization, with numerous hospitalizations and deaths. And as more parents choose unwisely not to vaccinate their kids, more and more cases are arising in the last few years in the US. There is NO treatment for measles. You don’t want to get it. There are complications.
SARS 1, an epidemic also caused by a coronavirus which developed in 2003, has been reported to have been “eradicated” however there have been a few cases, mostly lab accidents, which have been reported. With SARS-1, the transmission rate was lower and death rate higher than our present SARS Cov-2, which is why it “burned out”.
This will not happen with Covid-19!
It is just infectious enough and only kills a small enough percentage of those infected, that the virus is allowed to flourish and propagate. Don’t mistake “not dying”, with “getting through it” though. Studies on young, healthy people who had mild or asymptomatic infections of SARS Cov-2 showed that 60% of them had permanent lung scarring and more than 70% had evidence of heart damage. Many “longhaulers” are struggling with numerous medical problems months after their infections.
Our administration’s recent admission that attempts to “control the virus” will not work, favoring focusing on treatments and a vaccine, is a sad concession to peoples’ irrational beliefs in “individual rights” and the false belief that this is not real or a conspiracy or whatever lunatic theory they may believe in.
The facts are clear. Numbers are rising and are even worse than where things were back in the spring. The disease is much more widespread throughout the US than where it was back then, so having much higher numbers is not really that surprising. What is concerning is the rate of escalation, the rapid loss of resources like staff and hospital beds and the continued focus on politics rather than lives.
So far we know the following:
- It is very infectious, 3-5x more than the flu. It is much more airborne, even capable of transmission through regular speech.
- The death rate is ~2-3%. If it’s you, a friend or loved one, it’s 100%!!! Remember that 230,000 Americans have already died from this disease.
- Case rate and hospitalizations are back on the rise, approaching, if not surpassing rates we saw in the spring. This challenges our leaders’ blaming “more tests means more infections” theory. We have in fact done much less testing proportionately than any other developed country.
- Although most “get through” an infection pretty easily, the long term complications are still not known. Significant lung, heart and kidney damage has been noted in even “asymptomatic” young people.
- Long-term protection after infection has not been shown. Why? Because we have no long term data since this is a new infection. DUH! There may be some protection early on since re-infection rates are low, but there are re-infection cases out there so clearly, protection is not 100%. There may be no “immunity”, even after a vaccine is developed.
If herd immunity is even possible, we know that :
- 70-80% of people will need to be protected, either from recent previous exposure, or through immunization AT THE SAME TIME. Since protection wanes over time, we all need to be protected at the same time for the virus to “burn out”. If you get sick now, and an immunization doesn;t come around for 6-12 months, your protection may be gone and you may need to be re-immunized.
- We also know that a vaccine needs to be at least 70% effective to achieve this. That is very wishful thinking given our experience with the flu vaccine which, in some years, is only 30% effective. On the other hand, other vaccines, like measles, are nearly 100% effective. Time will tell.
- We also know that surveys show that 40% or more of people would not take the vaccine anyway. 50% of people already don;t get the flu shot annually.
All of this put together means that waiting for herd immunity is wishful thinking. While we do need to work on a vaccine as well as on therapeutics to treat this infection, slowing its progression and focusing on prevention is crucial. In letting it run rampant, hospitals will be overrun, supplies will dwindle and many more people will die unnecessarily.
DISTANCE. Physical distancing. Although I don’t like social distancing, we are rapidly approaching that unfortunate scenario again given how rapidly numbers are rising. Europe is facing this exact scenario.
WEAR A MASK.Wear an effective one and wear it correctly. They simply WORK!
WASH YOUR HANDS.
DON’T TOUCH YOUR FACE.
VENTILATE.
VACCINATE.
GET HEALTHY.
Stay safe and be well.
AC