Covid Shortages

Covid Shortages

As the Omicron and Delta variants of the SARS-Cov-2 virus spread rapidly across the world, things around us and how we function in society are slowly, and in some cases not so slowly, being impacted once again.

There is an eerie feeling of unease at grocery stores as people are starting to stock up on stuff again like at the start of the pandemic. We’re not running out of toilet paper yet, but many things are starting to be short. It is partly due to the supply chain issues, but this is also a result of the pandemic.

Although it still appears that the disease caused by the Omicron variant is less severe than the disease caused by previous incarnations of this virus, the sheer numbers are staggering.

We have daily cases greater than at any other point in the pandemic. Wednesday, we were just shy of 500,000 new cases with a 7 day average of 301,000. As one would expect, even with a milder disease, hospitalizations are on the rise and so are deaths. And as a recent study showed, 10% of all Covid infections, severe or asymptomatic, result in long-haul, potentially lifelong consequences. Other studies I have read put the estimates as high as 40%. You do NOT want to catch this disease.

In terms of the healthcare system, in some places, as many as 20% of active healthcare workers are calling out sick because of Covid. And that is in a system already strained by burn-out, early retirement and providers simply quitting and choosing a less risky and stressful job. This is part of the rationale that the CDC used in its recent announcement to shorten isolation from Covid to only 5 days in those who have few symptoms and can mask and interact safely with others. Not enough doctors, nurses or ambulance drivers is not a good thing.

In New York City, last week, twice as many firefighters called out sick with Covid than in a typical week. In England, nearly half of the firefighters and police are out.

Macys offered corporate employees bonuses if they were willing to work sales shifts. CVS is closing hundreds of pharmacies due to lack of staff as well as dwindling sales. The list of basic services is starting to deteriorate but most of us don’t notice because we just go down the street to another store and get what we need, all while we continue to bitch and moan about how it took 5 extra minutes for our drink and appetizer to come out from the kitchen at a local, understaffed brewpub.

I understand Covid fatigue, but that is no justification for laxed, irresponsible behavior. Allowing someone to be in the presence of someone who was exposed to Covid, simply to be social, is simply idiotic. Assuming that “I probably have it already” or “I’m not worried” is just being lazy, and irresponsible. I’ve heard and seen it all.

As far as Covid treatments are concerned, there are shortages of antivirals like Remdesivir, as well as monoclonal antibody treatments reserved for really sick people. Hoping that newer drugs will help you recover from Covid if you catch it is delusional. Most people are not sick enough to justify giving them these drugs and supplies are short anyway. As far as safety of these drugs are concerned, we have no long-term data about their side effects. Using that rationale, those who oppose vaccination for this reason have no right to request them if they get sick. Get the vaccine, which has an 18 month lead start on delayed side effects instead and significantly decrease your need for the drugs in the first place.  And news flash, side effects from the vaccine are very rare and they are extremely safe. 

And with all this going on, we’ve hit the wall in terms of vaccinations. We can’t get past 62% of fully vaccinated people and, as time passes and boosters are not keeping up, the number of properly “fully vaccinated” people is starting to drop off. In Israel, they are giving out 4th doses and we can’t even get over 1/3rd of our country to get a single shot. 

In addition, looking around our stores and seeing maybe 25% of people wearing masks, you’d think nothing is going on. Of those, only a few are really wearing a proper protective mask. The rest are wearing “face coverings” which are just about useless. More on masks later.

I know I am ranting, but it is frustrating. 

I read a saying about being scared from William Faulkner. “Be scared. You can’t help that. But don’t be afraid”. Being scared of something is a normal response but being afraid to the point of paralysis and frustration is not helpful. But neither is irresponsible behavior. We should be scared of this virus. And we should venture out and do what we need to live the most normal lives we can, but we must do it responsibly.

Please be careful this New Years weekend, wear a proper mask and wear it correctly. Distance and wash your hands. Although hygiene has been a less significant mode of transmission with Covid, it is still significant with the Flu and all the other respiratory viruses floating around out there.

And PLEASE get vaccinated and boosted.

Stay safe and be well.

AC

Shortening Quarantine Time is Dangerous Advice

The US just surpassed the highest daily case rate since the start of the pandemic almost 2 years ago. Over 265,000 cases in only one day. Despite this dramatic increase in the number of infections, the CDC recently suggested that the duration of isolating after contracting Covid-19 be shortened to 5 days, if your symptoms were at worst, mild. 

Why? 

Although there may be some actual practical reasons for this, I think it’s mostly because of political, economic and social pressure.

First, we ARE running out of healthcare providers. They’re also getting sick at alarming rates. Fewer ambulances. Fewer nurses. Fewer doctors. There may not be someone available to care for you if you need it, Covid, heart attack or car accident.  We’re also running out of other essential workers. If you need a police officer, they may not come as quickly because they too are understaffed. Just look at the mess at the airports with all the flight cancellations. They claim it’s mostly because of sick workers. Although every industry is impacted, I’m OK with waiting longer in the checkout line or a cancelled flight, but we should not be OK if we need a doctor or police officer more urgently.

If you are vaccinated, the duration of contagiousness IS shorter and the degree of contagiousness IS diminished. However, there are still about 40% of people out there in the US who are not vaccinated and fewer are boosted, and thus can’t claim that they are “fully vaccinated”. It’s like being a little bit pregnant. 

The CDC, did not make any comment about vaccine status when considering shortening the quarantine duration.

Studies continue to show that the greatest risk for transmission is the 2 days before symptoms start and the 3 days afterwards, Omicron or not. But some people continue to shed for days afterwards.

In addition, there is less Omicron than first thought which means that there is still a lot of Delta, which causes more significant disease with longer shedding of active virus. Remember that delta replicated up to 1000x more in the nose than previous variants.

The problem with people is that if you give them an inch, they take a foot. People love to hear good news about their bad habits or unfortunate circumstances. I have a VERY close relative who is older and was just diagnosed with covid. Minimal symptoms fortunately. Even she was asking me if she could shorten the duration of isolation. NO, NO, NO! Older, with underlying conditions, with an older spouse also with underlying conditions… Absolutely not. Isolate for a minimum of 10 days after symptom onset or a positive test if not symptomatic. Isolate. If you must be in the presence of another person, both should wear an N95 mask, keep the room ventilated and limit the time of exposure.

The pandemic is still here and it is still very serious.

A recent study indicated that as many as 10% of Covid infected people, symptomatic or not, go on to develop long-haul symptoms. You will likely survive, but a 1 in 10 chance of heart, pancreas, kidney or brain issues is not a risk anyone should be willing to take. Kids are getting infected at a much greater rate than before and there 

Pis concern for their cognitive development if they get long-haul issues involving the brain. Although this virus starts in the nose and lungs, it attacks every single organ system and some studies have shown active, live virus in organ/tissue biopsies, even months after initial infection.

As far as the surge is concerned, the rate of hospitalization and death has risen, but not proportionately relative to the overall number of infections. That’s a good thing. BUT, people are getting really sick and the fact is clear that the majority, >90% of those who do get really sick, are not vaccinated or boosted!

And the issue of testing at home as a means of determining contagiousness? Useless.

First of all, try getting a home test or get ready to wait for hours for a test at a facility. There is a massive shortage of tests. Secondly, the tests can remain positive for weeks, or even months in the case of genetic tests, after infection. Lastly, the antigen tests have a higher false negative rate, especially with the Omicron variant, so they can give you a false sense of security.

MOST IMPORTANTLY, behave in a way which minimizes your risks of getting sick in the first place. Vaccinate, mask up (more on that in an upcoming post), distance, ventilate, wash your hands and get healthy. 

IF YOU DO GET SICK, Isolate for 10 days from the onset of symptoms or from the date of the positive test if you are not symptomatic. 

There is no bending of the rules for the vast majority of people, even if some governmental body says that it may be safe.

This is not Dodgeball! This is a pandemic. It can be life and death.

Protect yourselves, but more importantly, protect everyone else around you.

Stay safe and be well.

AC ✌️🌱❤🏃🏻🧘🏻‍♂️🌎 🐖 😷(doctorchuma.com)