I think the title says it all.
As vaccination rates are rising, Covid numbers are plateauing and even dropping, and the weather is improving, it seems like there should be a lot to be grateful for. And there is. But we also need to be very leery of what may be on the horizon.
A new surge in Covid.
The variants are on the rise, accounting for at least 10% of new cases. As I mentioned earlier, our levels of genomic testing (looking specifically for the variants) is terrible so the numbers are certainly much higher. Although we know it’s much more infectious and causes worse disease, the variant viruses seem to have a similar incubation period (time from infection to onset of symptoms) as the regular virus, 3-14 days. But remember that the 2-3 days before symptoms even start is the time that people are most infectious.
The bottom line is that we need to continue to be careful. The messaging from our leaders, and unfortunately I also include in this group the CDC and even Dr. Fauci, is too permissive. I heard a recent quote from Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen: “100% commitment is easier than 98% commitment”. The point is that if you start making allowances, the situations where you loosen up too much become too frequent and then, SH*&^%T happens. If you give humans an inch, they take a foot. Being told that masks are no longer “mandated” is not licence to go running down the street singing but, as we have seen with these mask-burning parties, reminiscent of book burnings by Nazis, Puritans and Communists, people get worked up into a frenzy and start behaving irrationally. “Not mandatory” doesn’t mean “I don’t need to wear one anymore”.
The next month will be very telling with respect to which direction this pandemic is going. It may be OK, but I fear that it won’t. I think we are heading towards another surge. It is hard to make predictions since things are always changing. I recommended not wearing a mask at the start of all this back in February. So did Dr. Fauci. Boy was I wrong. Boy were we all wrong.
We know for sure that if you do all the things which protect you and those around you (masks, distance, hand-washing…), levels of infection and all the misery that goes along with it, diminishes. We know that there are superspreader events, almost always associated with limited mask wearing and distancing.
Why can’t we just wait a few more months until more people are vaccinated before we loosen up? Then, loosen up incrementally, monitoring things at 2 week intervals, corresponding to post-infectious spikes in positive cases and hospitalizations.
Why ask why? Humans will do what humans will do and that’s why we’re in this mess to begin with. Someone else, or something else, is always to blame!
Please be careful out there.
Get whichever vaccination you can get. Even one dose is better than two if that’s what it takes to get some protection. I spoke to someone today who got his while vacationing in Florida. He can’t get the second dose, but at least he has 50-60% or even more protection.
I know people are struggling to get vaccines. Each state is different. It seems that it’s mostly about being at the right place, or the right website, at the right time.
A useful website I was told about is www.vaccinefinder.org. There are no magic tricks to getting a vaccine. Sign up in as many places, and as many local states as you can. Keep checking and calling. You never know.
In the meantime:
GET HEALTHY. The least you can do is stay well hydrated and eat more plants!
MASK UP.
DISTANCE.
WASH YOUR HANDS.
DON’T TOUCH YOUR FACE.
PROTECT YOUR EYES WHEN APPROPRIATE.
VENTILATE.
VACCINATE.
Stay safe and be well.
AC