Good Thursday morning,

I was going to post something about how and why S. Korea has and continues to be doing such a good job in this pandemic (spoiler alert, it’s not about draconian lockdown measures because they have not actually done that) but something more important came up.

Someone made a comment to me yesterday about how, despite the much more believable and practical information experts like Sanjay Gupta and Dr. Fauci are providing, there seems to be an underlying sense that they are not giving the whole truth as they may believe it to be. I was asked my thoughts about what I think is really going on and what I think will happen moving forward. The simple answer is that we still don’t know but I don’t have a great feeling about it. Not because of the bug, but because of the selfish and irresponsible behavior of people and our failure to look past our immediate wants and desires and lack of respect of everyone else around us, including the animals and the planet. 

What we can rely on is what we know now and clear information about similar and well-studied viruses, other diseases and previous epidemics. 

1. We did NOT develop long-term immunity to similar coronaviruses causing more lethal but less infectious diseases like SARS-1. Antibodies were developed but levels dropped off quickly. The same seems to be happening with Covid-19. Infected people do develop antibodies and those antibodies may be providing short-term benefit for the host, and even for those receiving their plasma, but the levels seem to drop off quickly. So developing immunity long-term if you get sick is probably not going to happen.
2. We have NOT been able to develop a vaccine against, not only the coronaviruses which caused SARS-1 and MERS, but the other common coronaviruses causing simple colds. In addition, there are many other viruses out there to which we have NEVER been able to create a vaccine for a variety of reasons (HIV, HEP C…). We should continue to work on it, but at best, I think we will be creating a yearly immunization to Covid-19 in the same way we make an annual vaccine against the flu.
3. Although this disease seems to be affecting older, sicker people, just being overweight is a significant risk factor and ¾ of Americans (which means probably you) have some underlying risk factors you are ignoring or in denial about. This includes kids, 20% of which are obese. The healthier you are, the easier you will deal with inevitable infection. Why do I say inevitable? because of how infectious this virus is and how long it will probably take for a vaccine to be developed.
4. So why not just open it up and deal with it? Overwhelming the medical system with even seemingly OK Covid patients stresses the system, bleeds out all the resources so many more people will die unnecessarily. We saw it in NYC and Detroit and are now seeing it in  Florida, Texas, Atlanta and many other states are on the verge. A “Laissez-faire” attitude is a bad idea.

I see this turning into  another flu-like illness. Probably changing every year. Probably requiring an annual vaccination (which is not a 100% guaranteed protection anyway). My fear is that it doesn’t and that outbreaks will continue to move around the world continuously, creating continuous “mini-outbreaks” until something else about the genetic code changes, making it miraculously disappear.

In the meantime, global warming marches on and the planet is slipping away from us. Massive numbers of animals are being slaughtered. Our president declared that meat packing plants are “Essential” despite the fact that huge covid spikes have occurred in such plants with over 27,000 workers having been infected and 100 having died from covid (that’s another post coming up). Despite strong recommendations to continue to follow PPE, people are getting together in groups like nothing is going on. Despite the clear link of diseases like covid to eating animals, we continue to devour meat, even more ravenously as was seen in Thailand were they started eating even more dogs because of some ridiculous rumour that it would protect you from getting covid. We blame the Chinese wet animal markets yet there were more than 80 such markets in NYC. We continue to behave the same way we did before. How we behaved before got us into this mess. Only massive change in behavior will alter that. 

Nothing changes if nothing changes.

FAMILY

All that doomsday stuff having been said, I heard on today’s CNN Sanjay Gupta’s morning Covid summary podcast about how we need to start getting together with family but do so carefully.

Here is the link if you want. It’s short but to the point. https://overcast.fm/+YLnHp1jmY

Although we are all cooped up and it’s depressing, the isolation is having a much greater impact on the elderly. Grandparents LIVE for their grandchildren and it is such a shame that they are being denied one of their simple pleasures in life. It’s all about your own situation. If you have been careful, practiced proper PPE, then getting together with family is fine. Keep your distance. Stay outside if possible. Even a short quick hug is OK, but not if your kids were at a birthday party 3 days ago. Be smart. Be respectful of others.

Moving ahead with life is going to involve making these kinds of decisions. And we need to be responsible. People over 65 are simply more at risk so we can’t just behave the way we used to. Getting together is crucial for life but we must do it carefully and responsibly.

I saw an interview with a young person in Florida and his comment was that “I am not scared of getting the virus”. He may not care about himself but he also clearly does not care about everyone else, including his grandparents. He may not get symptoms but can transmit the virus as easily as someone coughing up a lung. 

Kindness, compassion and respect for others.

Stay safe and be well. 

AC 😎✌️🌱❤🐖🏃🏻🧘🏻‍♂️🌎😷